Many people have written about the risks of a Trump presidency. For some, these things look more like certainties than risks. I do not know. I list a few of the obvious ones here, in case you have been hibernating.
- Global warming and the environment generally.
- Race relations in the USA.
- Relations between the USA and Mexico, China, the Islamic World and errr… almost everywhere.
- Too generous an approach to Russia.
That looks pretty comprehensive. You may, therefore, be surprised then to learn that there are positive risks, or opportunities as I still call them, associated with the incoming Trump administration. These have been given less prominence in the press and the social media.
- Donald Trump has promised to spend a lot of money on infrastructure. Not just The Great Wall of Mexico. (Is he copying Hadrian or the Chinese?)
- He has also promised to cut taxes.
People have drawn attention to the fact that these two promises, if both implemented, will inevitably lead to a large increase in America’s deficit. That is usually counted as a risk, in a negative sense. BUT…
What if the Keynesians are right and this leads to a big boost for the American economy?
- It would be good for the USA.
- It could have a knock-on effect on the World economy.
- It could create opportunities for Britain to export to the USA.
- It could discredit austerity economics and encourage Keynesian economic policies in other countries.
So does this cloud have a silver lining?
Let us watch for the opportunities. Be ready to make the most of them.
Of course, this says nothing about global warming, race relations and all the rest of it. I did not say there was no cloud.